Third Time is a Charm!

Israelis and Arabs kill each other since 1948. Actually, even before the State of Israel was established (and was used as an excuse for the attacks of the Arab side of the conflict) they killed each other, whether it was in British Palestine, Europe or any other spot on the planet. Nothing is new under the sun, as we all know.

However, current Intifada, third by now, did not start in Jerusalem in the last month, and has more resemblance to the first Intifada (1987-1993) than the last (10/2000-02/2005), yet it is unique in many ways. Both first and current Intifadas are folk/informal Intifadas. Both were not funded by any organization, government or financial institutes, such as the second Intifada. Most, if not all incidents were and are private initiatives of private people, or, in the case of the kidnapping of the three Jewish boys last July in the territories, local initiatives of organizations, which their higher commanders apparently were not informed, nor ordered, to execute such incidents at that time.

Moreover, most of the incidents in the current Intifada were executed by Israeli-Arabs, living in Israel, as opposed to the first Intifada, when the activists were mostly citizens of the occupied territories, under Israeli military regime. Today, Israel is no longer the official ruler in the territories and there is a legitimate Palestinian government, both in Gaza and the PA. Nevertheless, since the attacks are been executed by Arab citizens of Israel, it can be considered as some kind of a similarity.

The last war in July-August 2014, between Hamas in Gaza strip and Israel, has blown up the already burning surface. It wasn’t only a war between two official figures. It was a war within Israel as well, and the hatred against Israeli-Arabs was at its pick. Many Israeli-Arabs were not hesitate to publically show their support in Hamas, and gloated when IDF soldiers were killed or injured in Gaza, or when a missile killed or injured Israeli-Jews. Even Israeli-Arabs who work(ed) for the Israeli official authorities were not afraid to show their gloat. This ugly gloat led to a massive public attack on the Arab sector in Israel, and every Israeli-Arab that posted his or her support in Hamas and/or gloating for Israeli-Jews’ death, was fired on the spot.

Many Israeli-Jews demanded to fire Israeli-Arabs from official positions, or actually any position that requires any access with Israeli-Jews. They wanted total segregation, which could not be fully executed by law, until the last few days, when the Israeli government passed the “Nationality Law,” calling for a Jewish State, implying that the Jews in Israel are a superior race. Of course, this law just stabilizes and makes the current reality in Israel legal. This law, along with the mentality that is now so widespread in Israel, teaches the world that the Jews have not learned anything from the holocaust and acting as the Nazis acted in Germany during the 1930s of the last century. Signs with “Here we do not serve Arabs” or “Here we do not employ Arabs” are common in various cities in Israel.  

The current Intifada is a result of the rising hostility between Israeli-Arabs and Israeli-Jews, hostility that has been promoted by Israeli officials from both parties. i.e. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and a few of his right-wing cabinet members, as well as Parliament members from the right-wing and the Arab wing, who have a lot to benefit from the situation. As the attacks continue from both sides, their electoral profit is growing. Their supporters call for an immediate action against “the enemy.” Two Israeli-Arabs kill five Israeli-Jews in a Synagogue, and a couple of days later, a famous Israeli-Jewish singer does not hesitate to incite against the Arab sector with hatred songs.

Unfortunately, the truth is that both sides cannot live with each other, not to mention their neighbors from the south-east border. There is no chance for reconciliation in the existing environment nowadays, when there are obvious parties, which fuels the fire for their own good. They just don’t want peace.

A New Government in Lebanon – Queries We Must Ask

   After almost a year, designated Prime Minister Tammam Salam has finally managed to form a 24-member Cabinet, prior to the upcoming presidential elections in May. The efforts of Salam and his mediator, MP Walid Jumblatt, deserve applause due to the major challenges and differences between the March 14 and the March 8 alliances. However, this government, in its current formation, raises a few queries.

   The first core issue of disagreement between the two sides was the portfolio given to Ashraf Rifi, who was Salam’s nominee for Minister of Interior. Hezbollah refused for months to this nomination, and eventually accepted Rifi as the Minister of Justice. Since Salam noted his government adopted the principle of rotating ministerial portfolios based on party and sect, it is hard to tell what is planned for Rifi in the future, and when.

   Secondly, the government is based on 8-8-8 lineup in which eight ministers are allotted to the March 8 and March 14 coalitions each. The rest of the ministers were chosen by the president, the prime minister-designate and Jumblatt. Moreover, this formula effectively grants both camps veto power, which establishes another core challenge for the new Cabinet. Both camps can put spokes in the Cabinet’s wheels as they wish and the options are countless, yet the most important are right around the corner - the presidential elections are in May, and the electoral law, the apple of Hezbollah’s eye, is waiting for another round in the public eye. Hezbollah was under a lot of pressure lately, and allowing this compromise of giving March 14 alliance a veto power as well, only means that Salam’s government’s days are numbered.

   The spill-over of the Syrian civil war into Lebanon, as well as the suicide bombings inside Hezbollah’s territories, have made the situation of the new government even more challenging. Its open involvement in the Syrian civil war led Hezbollah into a trap within the coalition’s negotiation. Additionally, the compromise that Hezbollah has made to get into this Cabinet is enormous, since the organization required exclusive veto power for a long time. Moreover, Hezbollah’s willingness to negotiate for this exclusiveness proves of their distress due to recent events, and maybe of their need of some stability in Lebanon, as much as possible.

   One should remember that Hezbollah, who for the common Western observer may be viewed as a terrorist group – is a hybrid organization – with a responsibility to its reputation and its people. It is not only a resistance group, or a terrorist organization, but a very powerful political party in Lebanon and a social movement as well, with a wide and deeply rooted infrastructure all around Lebanon, who Hassan Nasrallah cares for it. Furthermore, Hezbollah has always been considered as a proxy army of Iran, but it is first and foremost a Lebanese organization, and as such, it is obliged to the Lebanese people and the Shiite community in particular.    

   All parties in Lebanon are interested in one thing, more than anything, regardless of their sectarian belonging: avoiding another Lebanese civil war. When will one of the parties lose its patience? Only time will tell. How far will Salam’s government reach? In the end, it is all in Nasrallah’s hands.

  

Hezbollah’s Survival

   Hezbollah has lost more than 300 of its people since the organization has gotten involved in the Syrian civil war. It currently operates in three main sites, after its successful assistance of the Al-Qusayr campaign: the eastern rural area of Damascus (Al-Ghouta al-Sharqiyya), the Al-Qalamoun mountain range, north of Damascus, which runs along the Syrian-Lebanese border (the Homs – Damascus route), and the grave of Al-Set Zaynab, south of Damascus.

   The reasons for Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian crisis look very obvious to the common outsider, as the organization has a strong strategic alliance with the Syrian regime since Hezbollah was formed in 1982. Yet, senior officers of Hezbollah said to the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Rai that Hezbollah is fighting in Syria for other reasons, and not necessarily to protect the Syrian regime and President Bashar al-Assad. Hezbollah, they said, protects Lebanon and seeks to gain control over the area bordering on the Syrian-Lebanese border (the Al-Qalamoun mountain range), out of which organizations affiliated with Al-Qaeda (such as Al-Nusra Front) operate. It also has a sectarian-religious aspect, as Hezbollah is committed to continue defending the grave of Al-Set Zaynab, which is under constant attack by the rebels, who are aware of the site’s religious significance.

   Nonetheless, Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria, regardless its reasons, causes a few challenges to the organization in Lebanon. First and foremost, the Al-Nusra Front in Lebanon, which is the local franchise of Syria's Al-Nusra Front, a jihadist rebel movement, has conducted six major suicide bombing at the heart of  Hezbollah’s territory – the Dahiyeh in Beirut. The rebels had recently warned Hezbollah that attacks on their controlled areas will continue until Lebanon releases Sunni Islamist prisoners and the organization withdraws from Syria, which means a declaration of war.

   Second, the March 14 alliance members keep calling Hezbollah to leave Syria, since its involvement causes a blood-bath inside Lebanon as well, between supporters and opponents of Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, mostly in, but not limited to, the Tripoli area,. The protests have reached all over Lebanon, and their end is nowhere in sight.

   Politically, however, Hezbollah’s situation remains complicated as it was before. Hezbollah’s party, Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, is still the most influential party in Lebanon. The inability of Tammam Salam, the designated Prime Minister, to form a government, was essentially, Hezbollah’s fault, as the organization insisted on participating in a government based on 8-8-8 formula, with a veto power on vital issues. Their demands were refused by the March 14 alliance until recently, when the parties reached a possible agreement, which is yet to be signed due to recent events in Lebanon.

   Loyalty is appreciated and strategic alliances even more so. Hezbollah had done for Syria more than any other would have. However, the organization has paid too high a price for its involvement and should understand its place in Lebanon is far more important than the war in Syria. In Syria, the organization is not fighting for its survival, but that of President Assad. In Lebanon, it is a matter of the organization’s survival. In Lebanon, it is more than a resistance organization, or a terrorist group – it's both a political party as well as a welfare organization, with a wide infrastructure that might fall apart if Al-Nusra keeps hunting Hezbollah as it does today.

   Should Hezbollah fall on its sward for the Syrian regime? Should the organization commit suicide for a strategic alliance? Hassan Nasrallah needs to understand that Hezbollah must survive, and survival is nowhere near the Syrian civil war.

All data was taken from Lebanese press and http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/