The Fear Factor

   On Wednesday, January 30, 2013, Israel attacked an armed convoy close to the Lebanese-Syrian border, which might have been carrying SA-17 missiles to Hezbollah. The next day, Syria admitted that Israel attacked a Syrian military research facility that might have produced chemical weapons. The week before these strikes, Lebanon filed several complaints to the U.N. claiming that Israel violated its air space numerous times.

   This post was originally intended to address the ongoing crisis in Syria, the issue of the Syrian chemical weapons arsenal, and most importantly - whether Hezbollah will try seize that arsenal if President Bashar al-Assad steps down from office. It was supposed to examine the political, military, and financial implications on the domestic, regional, and global stage of Hezbollah’s possession of a chemical weapons arsenal.

   However, in the last few days I realized that though this issue is important to discuss, there is a far more important issue that has not yet been discussed - an everyday issue that could lead to another war in the Levant region. It is the fear factor, i.e. how the regional and domestic leaders are playing with our minds for their own interests.

   One might say that it is inevitable that the citizens of Israel, surrounded with enemies, will feel threatened. Since the State of Israel was founded in 1948, it has had to fight for its continued survival against its neighbors and terrorist organizations that did and do not accept the legitimacy of its existence. Some of the wars can be defined as “do or die” for Israel and some are for the purpose of deterrence – I will leave it to my readers to decide which is which.

   On the other hand, the reality has changed over the years. The State of Israel has changed from a new and weak state to become one of the strongest players in the region, and its conflicts have become asymmetric wars against hybrid organizations, and not against states. The 2006 elections in Gaza and the ‘Arab Spring’ have led to seismic shifts in leadership of Israel’s neighbors.

   Yet, one thing has remained the same in every entity in the region - the psychological warfare against its own citizens and its enemies. The hatred and fear in the militaristic societies are powerful and guide the governments and hybrid organizations (Hezbollah, Hamas) in every aspect of everyday life.

   Thus, if one listens to the Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, it seems that Israel is on the edge of a regional war with Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and Egypt. The national media in the Levant countries adds to the fear atmosphere by either showing Hassan Nasrallah’s hate speeches to the public (Israel, Lebanon) or producing hateful programs (Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Gaza) that serve to brainwash the public.

  In Gaze, the young generation is educated in this legacy in summer terror camps of Hamas, taught how to use guns and brainwashed with hatred of the Zionist state. Hezbollah educates its youth in the same method. Israel does it in a more subtle way, and invites families to visit military museums and bases. Since every person in Israel is required to serve the military, everything surrounds military life – slang, customs, work and many more.  

   The fear factor - we are ready for a war in any given time - government, Hezbollah and Hamas will tell their people, maybe hoping to deter the other side, but mostly

affecting the public. And I ask – let us rest a little. The public is tired of the war games they are playing. I am not asking for peace, or even a peace process, because peace cannot be achieved in the Levant in the next few years, and definitely not with the current rulers. But some rest from the war games, and more importantly – the mind games. That, they can give.