Hassan Nasrallah’s appearance yesterday morning (December 6, 2011) is a rare occasion. Since the 2nd Lebanon War (July War) in 2006, Nasrallah is cautious and spend most of his days in a secret bunker. His last public appearance was in 2008, when the Lebanese terrorist Samir Kuntar was released from Israeli prison in exchange of the bodies of two Israeli soldiers.
Nonetheless, Nasrallah’s step is not surprising. In the last few months, since the Syrian uprising started, Hezbollah has been moving its weapons arsenals from Syria to Lebanon, and the organization warriors, who assisted Assad at first, do not have the same supporting presence anymore.
Syria is nothing more than a strategic partner for Hezbollah. It is not a funding source or religious inspiration, but mainly a crossing point between Iran and Lebanon, as well as a supporter in the international arena. The strategic partnership was more significant until spring 2005, when the Syrians withdrew from Lebanon after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri– assassination of which after all pointed at the Syrian regime and Hezbollah as responsible.
Iran is a different story. Iran is the main source of funding to Hezbollah since its establishment in 1982. It is the one to fund the terrorist attacks against the U.S. in the 1980’s, and Israel. Its security forces were responsible for training Hezbollah’s warriors and to fund purchasing weapons. Iran is the one to fund schools, orphanages and hospitals in Shi’a areas. It is the one to religiously inspire the Shi’a community in Lebanon in general and Hezbollah particularly.
In light of recent events in Syria and Iran, when it seems that Bashar Assad’s days as a ruler are numbered, and Iran is concentrating all its efforts in preserving the nuclear program and thrusting the West criticism, Hezbollah was left out. The long-term program, so typical to Nasrallah, did not include the halt of the Iranian funding nor Assad’s falling, even though the last in not as meaningful as Iran’s funding.
Nasrallah’s appearance symbolizes the “day after” preparations - the day after Assad, the day after weak and un-functioning Iran. Exactly for this purpose Hezbollah has developed through the last two decades additional funding sources, such as drug trafficking in South America, blood diamonds and weapons trade in West Africa and smugglings in North America. Another funding source is the charitable organizations throughout the world that are used for funding Hezbollah’s social institutions in Lebanon, as well as its terrorist activities. Moreover, Iran has granted Hezbollah the control over many Iranian charitable organizations as a gesture of trust in 2008.
In recent speeches, Nasrallah stated that any attack on Syria or Iran might lead to an all-inclusive war in the Middle East. These statements cannot be ignored – they are binding Nasrallah in front of the Arab World, and he will not hesitate to execute them, even if in a smaller scale than promised. Nevertheless, Nasrallah is obligated first and foremost to Hezbollah’s internal position (i.e. Lebanon) and to keeping the unstable status-quo of the Lebanese political system. This obligation is more important for him today than its engagement with Iran and Syria.
His statements against the U.S. and Israel are no more than a failed attempt to deceive his audience and decrease the importance of the events in Iran and Syria. He tries to turn his listeners’ attention to the natural enemies of the Arab world - the main cause for any wrongful event in the region. His statements are also aimed to prepare the ground for a future international intervention in the area, as Nasrallah tries to prevent a possible support of the Lebanese and Arab world in his habitual enemies.
Nasrallah is obligated to show his strength. By this public appearance, even for these few minutes, he emphasizes the enormous importance that he and his organization attribute to the relations with the Arab public and the Lebanese Shiite community in particular. In his appearance he proves that despite the massive international and Arab criticism on Iran and Syria, Hezbollah remains at the same position of "owning" Lebanon and it cannot be replaced. Therefore, Hezbollah will continue to be a key player in any regional process, whether positive or negative.
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