Will Egypt become an Islamic state in the future?

   This week, in the highly anticipated Egyptian elections, the Freedom and Justice Party, the political arm of the previously banned Muslim Brotherhood won 235 of the 498 seats in the lower house of parliament. The Salafist party, Al Nour, won 123 seats.

   These are Sunni Islamist parties, so this new parliament, unlike the past secular houses, will be Islamist-dominated. At the latest, the presidential elections will be held in June 2012, and it is still unclear whether the new political system will be presidential or parliamentary. In the light of the recent success of Islamist parties, the question arises: “Will Egypt become an Islamic state in the future?”

   Hassan al-Bana founded the Muslim Brotherhood movement in 1928 with the goal of peacefully transforming secular Middle Eastern states into Islamic religious states. To this end, the movement established social institutions in Arab states such as schools, mosques, kindergartens and charitable organizations. Its activists were hounded by various Arab rulers since the 1960’s, perhaps because the movement threatened the political and social status quo of these. It is important to note that Saudi Arabia is already a religious state and has still banned the Muslim Brotherhood movement. Saudi Arabia has its Wahhabi version of Sharia law, and Iran has its Shi’a version.

   Following the fall of Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood activists emerged from secrecy proudly. The Islamist majority in the parliament demonstrates the public’s preference for religious parties over secular ones, and that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces may have lost control of the country.

   An Islamic state is not necessarily a bad thing in the eyes of an Arab beholder. A religious state is considered to be less corrupt than a monarchy and more devoted to protecting the interests of the citizens. Indeed, a religious state is seen by many to be an improvement over the past crooked dictatorships. As far as Egyptians are concerned, the Muslim Brotherhood is their social, economic and moral lifeline.

   The problems in Egypt will surface when the religious regime becomes radical. Other religious minorities will be persecuted for their beliefs and the implementation of Sharia law will become stricter, as Saudi Arabia. Egypt might suffer an economic blow as its sizeable tourism sector shrinks due to decreasing numbers of foreign tourists. Many Western travelers would be deterred by restrictions such as modest clothes and prohibition of women in certain public places.

   An increasingly Islamist-dominated Middle East presents several problems for the Western world and Israel. Firstly, a religious regime applies a radically different mindset to decision-making. A national Shura Council would advise the government through Sharia law rather than political rationality. Decisions made in this manner might be detrimental to Western interests in the area.

   Secondly, an Islamic state traditionally singles out Israel and the United States as the great evils of the world. So far, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt denies that it would move to nullify the peace accord with Israel, but it has declared that the accord should be re-examined to see if it harms the country and the Egyptian people. There is a possibility that the Muslim Brotherhood or its Ulamas (religious scholars) would decide to rescind the peace treaty due to religious justifications.

   Finally, even if the Islamic parties won a majority democratically, there is no assurance that they would uphold the democratic system following the election. In fact, the Iranian revolution of 1979 is an example of democratically elected religious parties seizing control and dismantling the very system that brought them to power. A religious majority in the legislature can pass religious laws, even though the new speaker, Saad al-Katatni of the Freedom and Justice party, said that “we want to build a new Egypt, a constitutional, democratic and modern Egypt.”  

   There is no doubt that the Egyptian case is complex and the Muslim Brotherhood movement is standing at a new crossroads. They are not hunted and are in the most powerful positions. Will they leverage their current position in order to promote their Islamic agenda, or will they call for democratization and modernity? If they choose the latter option, it is hard to see how it can be done within the framework of Sharia law.