If Israel Strikes Iran...

   Some commentators say that if Israel strikes Iran, Hezbollah will attack Israel to protect its patron state. This assessment could be accurate and there is little doubt that Hezbollah is eagerly looking for an excuse to attack Israel. However, the conclusion that Hezbollah would retaliate on Iran’s behalf is incorrect. This finding only serves to intimidate the public, as well as an Israeli attempt of deterrence.

   There are some analysts who claim that if Israel strikes Iran, Pakistan, Hamas and Hezbollah will attack Israel. An Iranian counter-strike is also a fair possibility. However, a Pakistani retaliatory strike is not a realistic possibility for several reasons. Firstly, though Pakistan has nuclear warheads, it does not possess long-range missiles like Iran does.

   Secondly, Pakistan is more concerned with the ongoing tension between itself and India than with Middle East affairs. Pakistan is also concerned with the presence of American intelligence agencies on its soil (including the bin-Laden assassination, which was executed without Pakistani consent). This preoccupation dwarfs any interest in an Israeli attack on Iran.

   Thirdly, American accusations of the collaboration of the Pakistani army with terrorist organizations do not encourage a fruitful cooperation with the West on counter-terrorism issues. In any event, owning warheads is not the same as using them. Pakistan would need a better reason to use these weapons than a strike on their neighbor on the western border.

   It is probable that Hamas will not attack Israel any more severely than they would under the current circumstances. It is important to note that radical Islamic organizations, and not Hamas, cause the escalation between Gaza and Israel. As of now, Hamas is engaged with their reconciliation agreement with Fatah. A third Intifada is out of the question due to financial and political limitations.

   Hezbollah must pay a lip service to Iran for years of sponsorship, as it did with Syria since the Syrian Spring has begun. It is well remembered that Nasrallah declared Hezbollah would support Bashar al-Assad by hook or by crook. In fact, the assistance Nasrallah has provided to Assad has been minimal. Initially, Hezbollah's activists, who were visible at first in the Syrian arena, are now nowhere to be seen. Furthermore, the recent kidnapping of Lebanese citizens by the Syrian army lead to enough outrage in Lebanon to make Hezbollah unwilling to take part in the coming Syrian civil war.

   What will Hezbollah do if Israel strikes Iran? Is it reasonable to assume that Hezbollah would attack Israel as it did in July 2006? Most likely not.

As in Syria, Hezbollah does not want to destabilize Lebanon, which it can control today. The organization also does not want to actively intervene to support a leader who will step down in the next few months. Moreover, Hezbollah recently served as a mediator in a cabinet crisis, proving its loyalty to all Lebanese citizens.

   Hezbollah would not pay more than lip service to Iran, which is under severe international economic sanctions including blocking government and central bank's assets. Since 1982, Iran has given Hezbollah an annual budget, but in the past few years the size of the payments has decreased and the disbursements were occasionally entirely frozen. Today, Hezbollah cannot depend upon Iranian economic support, and has therefore expanded its illicit drug activity in South America.

    At the end of the day, Hezbollah cannot actually protect Iran from Israel; it can only show its solidarity. However, Hezbollah is not suicidal and would abandon its expression of solidarity if its own survival was at stake. Criticism of Hezbollah after the July 2006 war made it hard for the organization to rehabilitate as it had many opponents. Since then, Hezbollah has chosen to focus on the domestic arena, even at the cost of ignoring the Zionist enemy in the South and turning its back to its patrons. Nasrallah has to prove his people that Hezbollah is an independent entity capable of running Lebanon with a firm hand, for the benefit of all of the Lebanese people.