The Genie is Out of the Bottle – Lebanon is on Fire

   After the assassination of Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hassan in Beirut last week (10/19/12) all political parties, including Hezbollah, released immediate statements calling for national unity and a close investigation of the assassination. The immediate statements of Saad al-Hariri and Samir Geagea from the March 14 coalition blamed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as the responsible for the assassination. Geagea went further and charged Najib Mikati’s government because "it created the environment for assassinations." All parties tried to appear restrained because of their constant fear of returning to the days of the civil war. Only one small flame is needed to set fire to the powder-keg called Lebanon.  

   Surprisingly, it took Geagea five days to accuse Hezbollah of involvement in the assassination, in an interview to the Saudi newspaper Al-Watan. Five days is a long time considering the fact that the March 14 politicians don’t miss an opening to remind the Lebanese people the connection between Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, the participation of Hezbollah's fighters in the systematic killing of the Syrian people, and the organization’s connection to the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

   The mob demonstrating right after al-Hassan's funeral carried signs with Hassan Nasrallah's picture and blamed him for the assassination. They have no fear. They know who cooperates with the Syrians all along, but rage brings flames.

   The question of the identity of the person or entity responsible for the assassination itself is not as significant as the question who desires a return to the violence and chaos of civil war.  Such a reoccurrence is not an unreasonable scenario at this time, as the tension between the Sunnis and Shiite community is very high. The immediate suspect, like in 2005, is indeed the Syrian regime. Is it likely that Hezbollah is involved this time? I find it hard to believe that Hezbollah was enmeshed in the assassination, but as past experience has proven, we should never say never.

   Firstly, Hezbollah is in a different political position than it was in 2005. It is the biggest political party in Lebanon, and most powerful, as Prime Minister Mikati was appointed under Nasrallah’s influence. The Shiite community in Lebanon is more that 60% of the population, and lately Hezbollah has played with the idea of passing laws that would give an advantage to the Shiite community.

   Secondly, Hezbollah would be wise to save its resources for operating abroad. A large number of the organization’s fighters are currently in Syria, fighting next to the Syrian army. In addition, Hezbollah invests many resources in drills and preparations for its next war against Israel, e.g. the UAV that was recently shot down in Israel. The organization cannot afford a renewed civil war in Lebanon, which would force it to spread its attentions to three battlefronts – Syria, Lebanon and Israel. The organization would be more exposed than ever and its strategic partners might not assist because of strict economic sanctions and civil war, in Iran and Syria respectively.

   Thirdly, Hezbollah has been occupied lately with internal matters, as well as public failures, such as the arrest of former Interior minister Michel Samaha, one of President Assad’s closest Lebanese associates, who was caught red-handed in an attempt to smuggle explosives from Syria into Lebanon. Other examples of organization-specific issues include revealed spy networks inside the organization, embezzlement of millions of dollars, and disagreements within the organization’s leadership. Nasrallah is trying to ensure his own seat while hiding in a bunker, and his latest public appearances are probably an attempt to demonstrate his control of the organization.

   This is also the moment of truth for the Lebanese army (LAF). LAF and other security forces functioned well in the first few days, but can they hold for a few months or years? Can they stop an emerging civil war? LAF called on politicians after the assassination to "exert caution while expressing stances and views and mobilizing people because the fate of the nation is at stake," and urged citizens to "exert the highest levels of national responsibility during this stressful period and not to allow emotions to overtake the situation." They are trying to prove that they should be taken seriously and they are in control. Let’s hope they are able to.

Sources: Lebanese press