Let
me start by saying: Hezbollah cannot afford for the "powder-keg" of Lebanon
to explode into full-scale civil war. Moreover, Hezbollah cannot afford a war
with Israel due to the severe consequences for the organization itself, its
supporters, Lebanon and the region.
Given Hezbollah’s sensitivity to local and
regional conflicts, it would be risky for it to try to revive the terrori sm myth by perpetrating terrori st attacks against Israeli civilians. Over the
past two decades, the organization has carried the labels of pragmatism and Lebanonization,
and acts of extremist violence do nothing but undo this hard work. Of all of Hezbollah’s
labels, ’resistance’ was meant to be the most aggressive. The label of ’terrori st group’ shouldn’t have been carried by an
organization wanting to be recognized as a legitimized player in national,
regional and global games.
Hezbollah does indeed want to be a part of
the Lebanese political system. Nasrallah realizes, and emphasizes that "the
alternative to dialogue among rival political leaders is chaos." The
dialogue Nasrallah is referring to stands at the same point, more or less, for
months – disagreement between the rival March 14 coalition and the March 8
alliance whether Hezbollah should be disarmed. Nasrallah refuses to disarm
Hezbollah, but agrees to continue the dialogue in order to find another
solution that might satisfy his political rivals.
Aside from the "white aspect,"
there is the criminal aspect of the organization. By renewing its terrori st activity, Hezbollah is also risking its global
criminal networks. The execution of terrori st
activities requires financial resources that Hezbollah does not have at the
moment. Currently, Western governments hunt terrori sts
more aggressively than they do criminals. Hezbollah’s smuggling cell in the Canada.,
for example, could be charged with terrori sm,
incapacitating that part of their criminal enterprise.
Contrary to Hassan Nasrallah’s radical and
hateful public statements, he is, in fact, a pragmatic leader of a multi-faced international
organization. Although Israeli and American security agencies consider Hezbollah
to be as a terrori st organization,
it is important to remember that every coin has another side, and in the case
of Hezbollah, the coin has four sides. Nasrallah’s every statement has a
rationalization, but they all have the same goal – gaining points in Lebanese
public opinion and frightening the Israeli public. But Nasrallah is not aiming
for war.
The Middle East, one should note, is a
militaristic region, with militaristic countries. Hezbollah is a natural player
in the region, and exists primarily to resist the State of Israel.
Nasrallah's statements are just empty
threats. Nasrallah knows it, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati knows it, and
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu knows it. And yet, none of these
kings and bishops tells the pawns in Israel and Lebanon, who expect another imminent,
deadly war. What a shame.
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