It
seems that Hezbollah is at its lowest point in years: networks of senior
officials spying for the Mossad and CIA, its telecom devices destroyed by the
IDF, millions of dollars of embezzled funds discovered a few months ago by one
of the organization’s seniors, and internal disagreements in the organization's
leadership – all with wide coverage in the Lebanese and global media.
Hassan Nasrallah is witness to all and
cannot believe this is the same organization he took over in 1992. The
powerful, unharmed, secretive and uncorrupt resistance/terrorist organization
with fearless, dedicated and disciplined fighters has degenerated to become the
opposite – weak, disorganized and permeable. Now Nasrallah has to prove to the
world and to his people that he is still in control. For this purpose, militant
statements work, but militant actions are even more effective.
For the sake of this post, the author
assumes that Hezbollah was behind the attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria. Nasrallah
openly declared after Imad Mughniyah's assassination in 2008 that revenge to
the 'Zionists' will come. Since then, American and Israeli security
intelligence sources have argued that Hezbollah keeps trying to execute
terrorist activities against Israeli targets, but until now, has failed.
The successful attack in Bulgaria came just
in time for Hezbollah, and particularly for Nasrallah. The attack was perpetrated
a few hours before Nasrallah's intended speech marking the sixth anniversary of
the July 2006 war with Israel. Unfortunately for Nasrallah, another attack
occurred earlier that day – the suicide attack in the Syrian Cabinet meeting,
which killed Bashar al-Assad's Defense and Interior ministers. In his evening
speech, Nasrallah eulogized the dead Syrian ministers and ignored the attack in
Bulgaria.
By simply ignoring the terrorist attack in
Bulgaria and Hezbollah's alleged responsibility for it, Nasrallah elevated his
position as a leader, and eliminated, at least for the coming period, internal
disagreements. In doing so he replaced the failed terrorist/resistance organization
label with Hezbollah’s natural label - the terrorism myth. Hezbollah is
back to being the fierce organization it used to be.
Less than a month following the attack, Hezbollah
decided to demonstrate its power and terrorist mystique once more. Last Friday
night (July 27), when most Israeli families were sitting around the Shabbat dinner
table and watching the news, Hezbollah released a short video showing the
kidnapping of the two Israeli soldiers on July 12, 2006. This video gives
Hezbollah major credit with its global and domestic supporters and raises its
prestige as a resistance movement.
At this point, Hezbollah needs to gain
strength and improve its reputation, so we can assume that the terrorist attack
in Bulgaria and the kidnapping film are just the tip of the iceberg. Hezbollah
must have determined that these steps would not start a war with Israel at this
point in time, as Israel is distracted by bigger concerns, such as nuclear
Iran. On the other hand, the organization came to the same conclusion about
potential Israeli response before the kidnapping of the two soldiers in July
2006. And we all know how that ended up.
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