A New Government in Lebanon – Queries We Must Ask

   After almost a year, designated Prime Minister Tammam Salam has finally managed to form a 24-member Cabinet, prior to the upcoming presidential elections in May. The efforts of Salam and his mediator, MP Walid Jumblatt, deserve applause due to the major challenges and differences between the March 14 and the March 8 alliances. However, this government, in its current formation, raises a few queries.

   The first core issue of disagreement between the two sides was the portfolio given to Ashraf Rifi, who was Salam’s nominee for Minister of Interior. Hezbollah refused for months to this nomination, and eventually accepted Rifi as the Minister of Justice. Since Salam noted his government adopted the principle of rotating ministerial portfolios based on party and sect, it is hard to tell what is planned for Rifi in the future, and when.

   Secondly, the government is based on 8-8-8 lineup in which eight ministers are allotted to the March 8 and March 14 coalitions each. The rest of the ministers were chosen by the president, the prime minister-designate and Jumblatt. Moreover, this formula effectively grants both camps veto power, which establishes another core challenge for the new Cabinet. Both camps can put spokes in the Cabinet’s wheels as they wish and the options are countless, yet the most important are right around the corner - the presidential elections are in May, and the electoral law, the apple of Hezbollah’s eye, is waiting for another round in the public eye. Hezbollah was under a lot of pressure lately, and allowing this compromise of giving March 14 alliance a veto power as well, only means that Salam’s government’s days are numbered.

   The spill-over of the Syrian civil war into Lebanon, as well as the suicide bombings inside Hezbollah’s territories, have made the situation of the new government even more challenging. Its open involvement in the Syrian civil war led Hezbollah into a trap within the coalition’s negotiation. Additionally, the compromise that Hezbollah has made to get into this Cabinet is enormous, since the organization required exclusive veto power for a long time. Moreover, Hezbollah’s willingness to negotiate for this exclusiveness proves of their distress due to recent events, and maybe of their need of some stability in Lebanon, as much as possible.

   One should remember that Hezbollah, who for the common Western observer may be viewed as a terrorist group – is a hybrid organization – with a responsibility to its reputation and its people. It is not only a resistance group, or a terrorist organization, but a very powerful political party in Lebanon and a social movement as well, with a wide and deeply rooted infrastructure all around Lebanon, who Hassan Nasrallah cares for it. Furthermore, Hezbollah has always been considered as a proxy army of Iran, but it is first and foremost a Lebanese organization, and as such, it is obliged to the Lebanese people and the Shiite community in particular.    

   All parties in Lebanon are interested in one thing, more than anything, regardless of their sectarian belonging: avoiding another Lebanese civil war. When will one of the parties lose its patience? Only time will tell. How far will Salam’s government reach? In the end, it is all in Nasrallah’s hands.