What is behind Mikati’s resignation?

   Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati resigned on behalf of his government on Friday, March 22, 2013. In the announcement, he cited the Cabinet’s failure to pass a proposal to extend the term of the country’s police chief, who will retire on April 1, as well as the blocking of a decision to form a supervisory committee for the 2013 elections. Free Patriotic Movement Leader MP Michel Aoun described the motives behind Mikati’s decision to throw in the towel as “silly.” Prime Minister Mikati said that he informed anyone of his decision in order to avoid pressure from all sides, and that his decision was personal.

   Nevertheless, one has to admit that Aoun has a solid point. Mikati survived many political crises since he formed the government in June 2011, making these reasons for resignation seem out of character and a little bit peculiar. Could there be other reasons for Mikati’s resignation?

   First and foremost, there are the Syrian civil war and the ensuing political pressure from its spill-over into Lebanon. Last year’s clashes in Tripoli are just one example, but more important is the tension between the Sunni and the Shi’a groups in Lebanon, over the matter of which side the Lebanese should support: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, or the Syrian rebels. The tension now is in its highest level and maybe Mikati feels he cannot control the country anymore, preferring to step aside and let another person deal with the expected clashes.

   A second option might be his relations with Hassan Nasrallah. It is well known that Nasrallah was responsible for bringing Mikati to premiership, and while they had their differences, mostly over the STL issue, they have cooperated well most of the time. However, STL’s proceedings still ongoing and Hezbollah is in a very delicate position in Europe due to the Burgas bombing and the Hezbollah’s activist’s conviction in Cyprus. It is certainly possible that Mikati feels that the time has come for him to step down from office since he cannot protect Hezbollah from the STL, the United States, the U.N. and the people of Lebanon.

   A third option might be that though Prime Minister Mikati claims that he consulted no one and his decision to resign was his own, Nasrallah demanded the resignation because he thought Mikati could not handle future events “properly” i.e. to Nasrallah’s satisfaction, and perhaps has found a better, as of yet, unknown candidate. The future candidate would probably be more subjugated to Nasrallah’s will and turn a cold shoulder to the world’s demands on Syrian rebels, the STL issue and many more.

   What future holds for Lebanon? Only time will tell. One thing is obvious: the reasons that Prime Minister Mikati stated as the reasons for his resignation are probably just a smokescreen.

Sources: Lebanese daily press